Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 10.097558 11.870835 13.821064 16.119189 18.747029 21.651758 25.099073
2024-12-22 7.373983 9.653043 12.395901 15.916128 20.287592 25.509157 32.186690
2024-12-29 5.711850 8.195992 11.421495 15.863222 21.759092 29.247300 39.396326
2025-01-05 4.392892 6.849738 10.264089 15.266123 22.298982 31.709320 45.099232
2025-01-12 3.610047 6.059426 9.672356 15.255778 23.499532 35.022857 52.093327
2025-01-19 3.012661 5.414245 9.155834 15.224638 24.585169 38.184117 59.050957
2025-01-26 2.728183 5.201679 9.240434 16.065276 26.984188 43.362506 69.231420
2025-02-02 2.458042 4.958568 9.226761 16.721233 29.124660 48.283727 79.352241
2025-02-09 2.246226 4.777148 9.279155 17.467974 31.445470 53.616113 90.428160
2025-02-16 1.951346 4.387060 8.910175 17.442536 32.473770 56.966281 98.614578
2025-02-23 1.636325 3.898611 8.291128 16.892361 32.538913 58.734962 104.355672
2025-03-02 1.357750 3.430858 7.640388 16.195076 32.256546 59.869452 109.084563
2025-03-09 1.197580 3.194144 7.417028 16.291079 33.429526 63.595101 118.469670
2025-03-16 1.045076 2.945484 7.134464 16.237934 34.320459 66.895667 127.354792
2025-03-23 0.918394 2.732330 6.894549 16.237331 35.300238 70.407138 136.811181
2025-03-30 0.767236 2.424591 6.400175 15.645872 35.068806 71.699470 142.407929
2025-04-06 0.676826 2.256165 6.195013 15.641612 35.991488 75.159505 152.085425
2025-04-13 0.596915 2.098625 5.990925 15.611983 36.850835 78.543044 161.802422
2025-04-20 0.573211 2.099258 6.172268 16.472157 39.630688 85.764619 179.042632
2025-04-27 0.541163 2.067993 6.268571 17.142966 42.056324 92.434359 195.581583
2025-05-04 0.515357 2.050971 6.398969 17.906314 44.737357 99.756015 213.728612
2025-05-11 0.459084 1.921649 6.212513 17.880352 45.674987 103.643363 225.434733
2025-05-18 0.390236 1.731355 5.828844 17.318035 45.355303 104.949207 232.142935